The kynurenine pathway (KP) may play a role in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic variants associated with the plasma levels of the metabolites of tryptophan (TRP) via the serotonin (5-HT) and kynurenine (KYN) pathways in 44 patients with BD and 45 healthy controls. We assessed whether variants that were differentially associated with metabolite levels based on the diagnostic status improved the prediction accuracy of BD using penalized regression approaches. We identified several genetic variants that were significantly associated with metabolites (5-HT, 5-hydroxytryptophan (5-HTP), TRP, and quinolinic acid (QA) or metabolite ratios (5-HTP/TRP and KYN/TRP) and for which the diagnostic status exerted a significant effect. The inclusion of genetic variants led to increased accuracy in the prediction of the BD diagnostic status. Specifically, we obtained an accuracy of 0.77 using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. The predictors retained as informative in this model included body mass index (BMI), the levels of TRP, QA, and 5-HT, the 5-HTP/TRP ratio, and genetic variants associated with the levels of QA (rs6827515, rs715692, rs425094, rs4645874, and rs77048355) and TRP (rs292212) or the 5-HTP/TRP ratio (rs7902231). In conclusion, our study identified statistically significant associations between metabolites of TRP via the 5-HT and KYN pathways and genetic variants at the genome-wide level. The discriminative performance of penalized regression models incorporating clinical, genetic, and metabolic predictors warrants a follow-up analysis of this panel of determinants.
