Populism and health. An evaluation of the effects of right-wing populism on the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

What are the effects of right-wing populism in the struggle against COVID-19? We explore data from Brazil, a country whose populist radical right-wing president was among the prominent denialists regarding the effects of the pandemic. Using cross-sectional and weekly-panel data for 5,570 municipalities during 2020, we present evidence that social distancing was weakened, and the number of cases and deaths were higher in places where the president had received greater electoral support during the 2018 presidential elections. Placebo tests using traditional right-wing vote and data on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) before the pandemic outbreak indicate that the former does not correlate with health outcomes, and the populist share of the vote does not correlate with the latter. Hence, we find strong indications that right-wing populism relates to a poor response to the disease.