Earlier spring greening in Northern Hemisphere terrestrial biomes enhanced net ecosystem productivity in summer

Abstract

Abstract The northern terrestrial biomes are being remarkably altered by climate change. Higher springtime temperature induces the earlier greening of vegetation, which may further influence ecosystem functions during the subsequent season. However, the response of summer net ecosystem productivity to spring vegetation greenness and phenology changes has not yet been quantified. To understand the impact of such phenological changes on terrestrial carbon sink of the following season, here we integrate remotely-sensed vegetation data and model simulations of carbon flux with an explainable machine learning approach. We find that the lagged effects of widespread earlier spring greening are increasing the summer ecosystem carbon sink across the northern vegetated areas (30° to 90°N) from 1982 to 2015. In particular, response disparities exist in non-agricultural biomes, and the vegetation with moderate tree coverage is more sensitive to earlier spring greening. Furthermore, modest tree restoration can strengthen the beneficial effects of earlier spring greening. This study improves our understanding of interseasonal vegetation-climate-carbon coupling that drives the key ecological feedback within climate change projections.