A Study on the Trade Potential between Northeast China and Countries along the Northeast Passage of the Arctic

Abstract

The navigation of the Arctic Channel has brought certain impact on the traditional international trade environment. Northeast China is the closest to the Arctic, so it is of great significance to study whether the future navigation of the new Arctic channel will have a positive impact on the cargo trade and transportation in Northeast China. This paper uses the panel data from 2010-2020, uses the expanded trade gravity model to conduct empirical tests, analyzes the influencing factors of the bilateral trade between the Northeast China and the countries of the Arctic Northeast Passage, and compares the trade potential of the Suez Canal Passage and the Arctic Northeast Passage. The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between shipping distance and trade volume; the opening of the Arctic Northeast Channel will increase the export potential and import potential of the Northeast China to the countries from the channel by 30.76% and 31.52% on average. Our results shed light on government policies aiming to improve the level of foreign trade in Northeast China.