A study on the relationship between money supply and inflation in Vietnam from 2005 to 2021

Abstract

The study examines the relationship between money supply and inflation in Vietnam in the period of 2005-2021. The relationship between money supply and inflation is addressed in economic theories and models and has been studied by many experts in different economies in different periods. To examine the relationship between money supply and inflation in Vietnam in the period of 2005-2021, the research team collected data on money supply and inflation rate, then analyzed this relationship during three periods of 2005-2011, 2012-2019 and 2019-2021. Next, the research team collected data on money supply (MS - total means of payment) and consumer price index (CPI), quarterly data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2021 and uses Eviews 8 software for analyzing. The research team uses a linear regression model to evaluate the impact of money supply growth (GMS) on consumer price index (CPI), a variable representing the inflation rate, of Vietnam during the research period. The model results support the view that money supply growth and past inflation are among the factors affecting inflation in Vietnam. From the research results and the actual money supply, the money supply growth rate as well as the inflation rate in Vietnam during the research period, the research team makes some policy recommendations to achieve the targets of supporting economic recovery, controlling inflation, stabilizing the macro-economy in Vietnam after the Covid-19 pandemic.