Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

T.A.M. Pugh; C. Müller; J. Elliott; D. Deryng; C. Folberth; S. Olin; E. Schmid; A. Arneth

doi:10.1038/ncomms12608

Nature Communications (Sep 2016)

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

T.A.M. Pugh,
C. Müller,
J. Elliott,
D. Deryng,
C. Folberth,
S. Olin,
E. Schmid,
A. Arneth

Affiliations

T.A.M. Pugh: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
C. Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
J. Elliott: University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute
D. Deryng: University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute
C. Folberth: Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
S. Olin: Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University
E. Schmid: Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
A. Arneth: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12608
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 7, no. 1
pp. 1 – 8

Abstract

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Simulations of the impact of future climate change on crop yield vary considerably. Here, the authors use a climate analogue approach to estimate the response of maximum attainable yield to climate change and predict that large shifts in land use and crop choice would be required to meet demand.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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