A novel spatial electric load forecasting method based on LDTW and GCN

Abstract

Abstract Spatial power load forecasting is crucial for power grid planning, generation planning, dispatching, efficient power utilization, and sustainable development. The integration of new energy sources and electric vehicles has significantly altered grid loads, increasing the complexity of spatial load forecasting. However, existing techniques fail to fully consider the temporal and spatial correlation characteristics of data, leading to challenges in data identification and summarization. This reduces load forecasting accuracy and prolongs prediction time. To address these issues, a spatial electric load forecasting method based on improved scale limited dynamic time warping (LDTW) and graph convolutional network (GCN) are proposed. Firstly, the improved scale LDTW is used to improve the clustering effect of K‐Mediods++, refine the type of load data, and make the subsequent model training more targeted. Secondly, the interconnections and distances of substations in a real network structure is used to build a graph model to capture the power load distribution. Finally, based on the clustering results and the graph model, GCN‐LSTM is used to construct the spatio‐temporal forecasting algorithm. The proposed algorithm is tested using load data from a region in Shanghai and compared with other advanced algorithms. Results show that the algorithm achieves higher prediction accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords

• load forecasting
• time series