Estimation of Surface Ozone Effects on Winter Wheat Yield across the North China Plain

Abstract

Surface ozone (O3) pollution has adverse impacts on the yield of winter wheat. The North China Plain (NCP), one of the globally significant primary regions for winter wheat production, has been frequently plagued by severe O3 pollution in recent years. In this study, the effects of O3 pollution on winter wheat yield and economic impact were evaluated in the NCP during the 2015–2018 seasons using the regional atmospheric chemical transport model (WRF-Chem), O3 metrics including the phytotoxic surface O3 dose above 12 nmol m−2 s−1 (POD12), and the accumulated daytime O3 above 40 ppb (AOT40). Results showed that the modeled O3, exposure-based AOT40, and flux-based POD12 increased during the winter wheat growing season from 2015 to 2018. The annual average daytime O3, exposure-based AOT40, and flux-based POD12 were 44 ppb, 5.32 ppm h, and 1.78 mmol m−2, respectively. During 2015–2018, winter wheat relative production loss averaged 10.9% with AOT40 and 14.6% with POD12. This resulted in an average annual production loss of 12.4 million metric tons, valued at approximately USD 4.5 billion. This study enhances our understanding of the spatial sensitivity of winter wheat to O3 impacts, and suggests that controlling O3 pollution during the key growth stages of winter wheat or improving its O3 tolerance will enhance food security.

Keywords

• North China Plain
• WRF-Chem
• surface ozone
• winter wheat
• food security