Ciência Rural (Mar 2020)

Economic analysis of the risk of replacing corn grains (Zea mays) with pearl millet grains (Pennisetum glaucum) in the diet of feedlot cattle

  • Rodrigo Medeiros da Silva,
  • Rodrigo Zaiden Taveira,
  • João Restle,
  • Edom de Avila Fabricio,
  • Angelina Camera,
  • Greicy Sofia Maysonnave,
  • Ubirajara Oliveira Bilego,
  • Paulo Santana Pacheco,
  • Fabiano Nunes Vaz

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-8478cr20190443
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 50, no. 3

Abstract

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ABSTRACT: The goal of the present study was to assess the economic viability relating to the risk of replacing corn with pearl millet in diets with 80% concentration for feedlot cattle confined for 89 days. Replacement levels were: 0, 33, 66, and 100%. The risk was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation, Spearman’s rank correlation test between input variables, stochastic dominance, and analysis of sensitivity. The expected average values ± standard deviation for net present value (R$/animal) were ± 71.74 ± 283.32, 91.23 ± 285.18, 196.05 ± 273.79, and 223.80 ± 267.96 for diets containing 0, 33, 66, and 100% of pearl millet, respectively. The probability of ≥0 net present value was 63.4, 66.1, 78.4, and 82.4%, respectively. The net present values were statistically different (P<0.05), and the higher levels dominated the lower values. The items that most influenced the net present values were, in descending order, prices of unfinished and finished cattle, initial and final weights, prices of concentrate and forage, concentrate and forage consumption. Based on the results of the simulation, diet of 100% pearl millet exhibited the best economic viability.

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