Demographic Research (Jun 2013)
Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes: A reflection
Abstract
BACKGROUND For the last 70 years the concept of the demographic transition has provided a basis for understanding and predicting population trends in the developing world. However, a majority of the developing world's population will soon be post-transitional - what will happen then? This paper attempts to outline where answers to this question might be found. It suggests that a valuable way to organise the study of these issues is the concept of the demographic regime. OBJECTIVE The aim of the paper is to encourage discussion on the nature of post-transitional demographic regimes around the world, especially in the developing world. The style of the reflection is that of a speculative essay - a Denkstuck or ballon d'essai. METHODS In addition to a discussion of the concept of a demographic regime, the paper looks at three possible sources of information on the determinants of post-transitional regimes in the developing world: 1) the nature of the transition itself, 2) lessons drawn from pre-transitional regimes, and 3) demographic trends in Europe and other developed countries, some which have been post-transitional for several decades. CONCLUSIONS The paper concludes with a set of suggestions for future research on the topic.
