Use of holt’s model for forecasting until 2023 occupational accidents in the metallurgical industry in Poland

Abstract

The article the issue of occupational accidents in the metallurgical industry was presented. The accident analysis included occupational accidents from 2009 to 2018. Based on compiled empirical data (2009-2018), the process of forecasting occupational accidents until 2023 was carried out. The Holt’s model with an additive trend was used to carry out the forecasting process. The use of the developed forecasting model allowed to assess the tendency of changes in the number of occupational accidents in the metallurgical industry in Poland. The developed model can also be used to assess accident changes in other countries.

Keywords

• metallurgy products
• occupational accidents
• forecasting
• Holt’s model
• Poland