Scenarios for deep decarbonisation of industry in Lithuania

Abstract

Achieving an ambitious EU long-term vision of climate neutrality requires efforts across all Member States and economic sectors. Lithuania's industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to maintain current trends under a business-as-usual case. We applied a bottom-up modelling approach to analyse deep decarbonisation scenarios for the Lithuanian industry up to 2050 to advance the wider debate and provide insights into the measures needed to make a difference. The results show that the deep decarbonisation of the Lithuanian industry by 2050 is feasible. However, to avoid large-scale emissions from industrial processes, it is requisite to utilise green hydrogen (H2) as a feedstock for ammonia production and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for clinker production. It requires significant investments and increases operating costs. Without CCS and H2, only up to 17 % of industrial emissions could be avoided by 2050.

Keywords

• Decarbonisation
• Industry
• Carbon dioxide emissions
• Scenario analysis
• Bottom-up approach