Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2020)

Population exposure to pre-emptive de-energization aimed at averting wildfires in Northern California

  • John T Abatzoglou,
  • Craig M Smith,
  • Daniel L Swain,
  • Thomas Ptak,
  • Crystal A Kolden

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba135
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 15, no. 9
p. 094046

Abstract

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Recent extreme fire seasons in California have prompted utilities such as Pacific Gas and Electric to pre-emptively de-energize portions of the electrical grid during periods of extreme fire weather to reduce the risk of powerline-related fire ignitions. The policy was deployed in 2019, resulting in 12 million person-days of power outages and widespread societal disruption. Retrospective weather and vegetation moisture data highlight hotspots of historical risk across northern California. We estimate an average of 1.6 million person-days of de-energization per year, based on recent historical climate conditions and assuming publicly stated utility de-energization thresholds. We further estimate an additional 70% increase in the population affected by de-energization when vegetation remains abnormally dry later into autumn—suggesting that climate change will likely increase population vulnerable to de-energization. Adaptation efforts to curtail fire risk can be beneficial, but efforts to prepare affected populations, modernize the grid, and refine decision-making surrounding such policies have high potential to reduce the magnitude of negative externalities experienced during the 2019 de-energization events.

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