Spatial and temporal assessment of climate impact on agriculture in plateau region, India

Abstract

Using large-scale district-level data, the study examined the impact of climate change on crop yields during the period 1966-2011and predictsthe likely changes in yield sacross agro-climatic zones in Plateau Region. The future projections reveal that by 2080s, cotton yield is expected to decline by 7.18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills.By the end of the century, sorghum yield is projected to decline up to 19 percent in Central Plateau & Hills and increase by 18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. Under midterm period, rapeseed & mustard yield is likely to reduce by 3.44 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. By 2050s maize yield is expected to reduce by 3.33 percent in Central Plateau & Hills. By 2080s, wheat yield is projected to decline by 5.44, percent in SouthernPlateau & Hills. The results suggest that impact of climate change on crop yield varies across regions, hence it is pertinent to formulate adaptation strategies and farm practices suitable to the crop and location specific needs that mitigate the likely exposure of food production and livelihoods to climate variations.

Keywords

• Crop yields, climate change, agro-climatic zones, impact, projections