Dynamics System Modeling of Declining Agricultural Land Area Potentially Causing Jakarta Flood Disaster

Abstract

The change or evolution of land use in the DKI Jakarta area has caused various environmental problems in the city that have an impact on disasters that occur from time to time. The conversion of agricultural land that has a relatively high ability to absorb water into built-up land has reduced the water absorption capacity because the built-up area is increasingly impermeable which is at risk of causing flood disasters. This research focuses on a simple dynamic system modeling approach to understand the cause-and-effect relationship of the decline in agricultural land area in the DKI Jakarta area. The method used in this research is a qualitative-based dynamic system, dynamic system is a method that can be used to form structures and predict behavior and feedback. Dynamic system modeling using Powersim Studi 10 Express software uses time specifications ranging from 2020 to 2070. The results of the dynamic system model of agricultural land decline can be said to be valid, where the dominant structure formed is Negative Feedback (Balancing Loop) with Exponential Decay behavior and Average Means Error (AME) test results obtained a value of 29.6%

Keywords

• System Dynamics, Agricultural Land, Land Conversion, Flood Disaster