Predictability of the East Africa long rains through Congo zonal winds

Abstract

Abstract East Africa is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. Skillful seasonal forecasts exist for the October–November–December short rains, enabling informed decisions, whereas seasonal forecasts for the March–April–May (MAM) long rains have historically had low skill, limiting preparation capacity. Therefore, improved long rains prediction is a high priority and would contribute to climate change resilience in the region. Recent work has highlighted how lower‐troposphere Congo zonal winds in MAM strongly impact regional moisture fluxes and the long rains total precipitation. We therefore approach long rains predictability through the predictability of the Congo winds. We analyze a set of hindcasts from a dynamical prediction system that is able to reproduce the long rains—Congo winds relationship in its individual ensemble members. Encouragingly, in observations, the strength of MAM Congo zonal winds and East Africa rainfall show substantial correlation with the MAM Atlantic (including North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) and Indo‐Pacific variability, suggestive of ocean influence and potential predictability. However, these features are replaced by different teleconnections in the hindcast ensemble mean fields. This is also true for NAO linkage to Congo winds, despite correct representation in individual members, and good skill in hindcasting the NAO itself. The net effect is strongly negative skill for the Congo winds. We explore statistical correction methods, including using the Congo zonal wind as an anchor index in a signal‐to‐noise calibration for the long rains. This is considered a demonstration of concept, for subsequent implementation using models with better Congo zonal wind skill. Indeed, the clear signals found in the Atlantic (including Mediterranean) and Indo‐Pacific, studied here both in observations and a dynamical prediction system, motivate evaluation of these features across other prediction systems, and offer the prospect of improved physically‐informed long rains dynamical predictions.

Keywords

• Congo
• dynamical prediction
• East Africa
• long rains
• North Atlantic Oscillation
• seasonal forecast