Assessing the decarbonization potential of China’s light-duty truck fleet by electrification

Abstract

Light-duty trucks (LDTs) play an important role in last-mile delivery. To assess the CO2 mitigation potential of the electrification pathway of the LDT fleet in China, a dynamic fleet-based life cycle assessment model is developed. Four scenarios with different electrification progress are designed to evaluate the LDT stock growth, energy demand and the life cycle CO2 emissions quantitatively. The results show that LDT stock will increase to about 38 million in 2050. Energy demand and life cycle CO2 emissions of the LDT fleet can be greatly reduced with the increase in the proportion of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the LDT stock. The electrification mitigation benefit obtained from the fuel cycle will eventually outweigh the additional CO2 emissions generated by the vehicle cycle, especially in the long term with a cleaner power grid and a higher proportion of BEV in the LDT stock.

Keywords

• Life cycle assessment
• Light duty truck
• Fleet model
• Decarbonization
• CO2 emissions