Research on Risk Assessment Model of Epidemic Diseases in a Certain Region Based on Markov Chain and AHP

Abstract

Epidemic risk has great uncertainty and harmfulness, which poses a potential threat to public health in a certain region. Establishing a special risk assessment system to assess and predict the potential epidemic risk of a region can effectively avoid or reduce the impact of epidemic risk. Therefore, this paper combs the related factors that affect the epidemic risk, and proposes an epidemic risk assessment model based on 12 indicators by combining Markov chain and AHP. The model can assess the epidemic situation in a certain region from four aspects: the probability of risk occurrence, the probability of loss, the possibility of risk disappearance and risk duration, so as to provide detailed data for the risk management and control of epidemic in the region, and help the epidemic prevention work to be carried out in a targeted way. Finally, the case analysis and method comparison are carried out,and the results show that the model proposed in this paper is reasonable and feasible.

Keywords

• AHP
• disease assessment
• epidemic diseases
• epidemic risk
• Markov chain
• risk assessment