Ecological sustainability and high-quality development of the Yellow River Delta in China based on the improved ecological footprint model

Abstract

Abstract Aiming at the traditional ecological footprint model, the improved ecological footprint of the carbon footprint effectively makes up for the singularity of the ecological footprint's consideration of carbon emissions, and plays an important role in promoting high-quality development and ecological sustainability. This paper selects 2015, 2018 and 2020 as important time points for the study, corrects the ecological footprint parameter factors based on net primary productivity (NPP), measures the ecological footprint after the improvement of the carbon footprint, studies the spatial and temporal variation in the ecological footprint at the 100-m grid scale with the support of IPCC greenhouse gas inventory analysis, and analyzes the current ecological conservation status of the Yellow River Delta. Additionally, in the context of a low carbon economy, the decoupling index of carbon emissions and GDP is extended to the evaluation and analysis of high-quality development. The study showed that (1) the ecological footprint of the Yellow River Delta has increased year by year, from 0.721 hm2·person− 1 to 0.758 hm2·person− 1, an average annual increase of 2.9%; the ecological carrying capacity has decreased from 0.40 hm2·person− 1 to 0.31 hm2·person− 1, an overall decrease of 28.59%. (2) The overall ecological deficit of the Yellow River Delta grid is lightly overloaded, with most of the ecological surplus occurring in the northern and eastern parts of the study area and a few moderate and heavy overloads in the center of the core area where there is a lot of built-up land and the area is small and easy to gather. (3) Based on the low-carbon economy analysis, 2015, 2017 and 2020 reach absolute decoupling and are in the ideal scenario. However, in the rest of the years, carbon emissions and economic development are still in a large contradiction, and decoupling has fluctuated and varied greatly in the last six years. The effective combination of ecological footprint and low carbon economy analysis provides an important theoretical basis for improving ecological conservation and achieving high-quality development.