PCR Test Positivity and Viral Loads during Three SARS-CoV-2 Viral Waves in Mumbai, India

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests generally report only binary (positive or negative) outcomes. Quantitative PCR tests can provide epidemiological information on viral transmission patterns in populations. SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns during India’s SARS-CoV-2 viral waves remain largely undocumented. We analyzed 2.7 million real-time PCR testing records collected in Mumbai, a bellwether for other Indian cities. We used the inverse of cycle threshold (Ct) values to determine the community-level viral load. We quantified wave-specific differences by age, sex, and slum population density. Overall, PCR positivity was 3.4% during non-outbreak periods, rising to 23.2% and 42.8% during the original (June–November 2020) and Omicron waves (January 2022), respectively, but was a surprisingly low 9.9% during the Delta wave (March–June 2021; which had the largest increase in COVID deaths). The community-level median Ct values fell and rose ~7–14 days prior to PCR positivity rates. Viral loads were four-fold higher during the Delta and Omicron waves than during non-outbreak months. The Delta wave had high viral loads at older ages, in women, and in areas of higher slum density. During the Omicron wave, differences in viral load by sex and slum density had disappeared, but older adults continued to show a higher viral load. Mumbai’s viral waves had markedly high viral loads representing an early signal of the pandemic trajectory. Ct values are practicable monitoring tools.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
• PCR positivity
• Aleph Delta Omicron waves
• Mumbai
• India