Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Floating Population's Settlement Intention in the Pearl River Delta

Abstract

During the stage of high-quality development, the orderly promotion of citizenization of the floating population is crucial to ensure the high-quality population development and sustainable socio-economic growth of our country. In this study, dynamic monitoring survey data of China's floating population in 2017 were referenced to categorize the settlement intentions of this population group into three types (viz., short term, long term, and permanent) according to their expected residence duration. Subsequently, the mobility and residential characteristics of this population were analyzed by using a multinomial logistic regression model to examine differences in their demographic and family characteristics, mobility patterns, economic status, and social integration. The findings are as follows: (1) Dongguan and Huizhou, located on the east bank of the Pearl River and primarily driven by manufacturing industries, have a significant proportion of populations with short-term settlement intentions. By contrast, cities with lower living costs or more comprehensive services are more likely to attract long-term residents. (2) The inter-provincial floating population tends to flow into Shenzhen, with individuals migrating a short distance being more predominant. Long-distance inter-provincial migrants have a stronger intention to settle permanently. Within the province, the floating population tends to flow into Guangzhou, displaying a certain degree of geographical proximity in city choices and a tendency to stay long term or permanently. (3) Groups characterized by female sex, older age, higher educational level, marital status, longer inflow time, non-work-related inflow reasons, and higher income level tend to take up long-term or permanent residence at their destination. Conversely, lower levels of these characteristics are associated with shorter stays. Higher degrees of social integration can promote permanent settlement intentions among inter-provincial migrants compared with the effect on their intra-provincial counterparts. (4) Each factor has different effects on groups with the same settlement intention within and outside the province, as reflected in the varying impacts of educational level, marital status, income level, and migration reasons on inter- and intra-provincial floating populations. This study breaks through the traditional binary division model of settlement intentions, enhancing our understanding of floating populations through the "short-term residence–long-term residence–permanent settlement" categorization method. The Pearl River Delta region, one of the areas with the largest concentration of the floating population and the highest degree of economic development in China, serves as a critical case study. Understanding the flow and residence patterns of this population in this region will help government departments implement relevant policies and safeguarding measures tailored to different settlement intentions, thereby improving urban operational efficiency.

Keywords

• floating population
• settlement intention
• migration
• multiple logistic regression
• pearl river delta