Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer in Patients with Chronic Pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) have an increased risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We present data on PDAC in one of the most extensive European single-centre cohort studies of patients with CP. Methods: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of patients with CP was performed. Aetiology of CP was determined according to the M-ANNHEIM classification system and only patients with definite CP > 18 years at data analysis were included. The final dataset included 581 patients with definite CP diagnosed between 2003 and 2018. Results: At CP diagnosis, there were 371 (63.9%) males and 210 (36.1%) females (median age 57 years, range 2–86). During 3423 person-years of observation, six pancreatic cancers were diagnosed (0.2% year). The mean time between diagnosis of CP and the occurrence of PDAC was 5.0 years (range 2.7–8.6). None of the cancer patients had a family history of PDAC. Diabetes mellitus (DM) was present in five of six (83.3%) patients with PDAC: in three patients before and in two after CP diagnosis. Clinical/laboratory signs of pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI) were present in five of six (83.3%) patients with PDAC: in two at diagnosis of CP and in three after diagnosis. The mean survival time was 4 months after the diagnosis of PDAC (range 0.5–13). PDAC occurred significantly more often (p Conclusions: Patients with CP have a high risk of developing PDAC, although risk is low in absolute terms. Our data suggest the possibility of defining subgroups of patients with a particularly elevated risk of PDAC. Such a possibility would open a path to personalised decision making on initiation of PDAC surveillance of patients with no previous episode of AP, (i) with low BMI and PEI, or (ii) elevated BMI and DM.

Keywords

• pancreas
• cancer
• chronic pancreatitis
• risk factors