Number of Cyber Attacks Predicted With Deep Learning Based LSTM Model

Abstract

The increasing number of cyber attacks will result in various damages to the functioning of technological infrastructure. A prediction model for the number of cyber attacks based on the type of attack, handling actions and severity using time-series data has never been done. A deep learning-based LSTM prediction model is proposed to predict the number of cyberattacks in a time series on 3 evaluated data sets MSLE, MSE, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, and displays the predicted relationships between prediction variables. Cyber attack dataset obtained from kaggle.com. The best prediction model is epoch 20, batch size 16, and neuron 32 with the lowest evaluation value on MSLE of 0.094, MSE of 9.067, MAE of 2.440, RMSE of 3.010, and MAPE of 10.507 (very good model because the value is less than 15) compared other variations. There is a negative correlation for INTRUSION-MALWARE, BLOCKED-IGNORED, IGNORED-LOGGED, and LOW-MEDIUM. The predicted results for the next 12 months will increase starting from the second month at the same time. The resulting predictions can be used as a basis for policy and strategy decisions by stakeholders in dealing with fluctuations in cyber attacks that occur.

Keywords

• cyber attack, prediction, lstm, deep learning