Modeling the Rating system of Export-Oriented Companies in the Agro-Industrial Complex of the Russian Federation. subsidy Mechanism

Abstract

The study explores the influence of internal factors on the level of exports of products of the agro-industrial complexof the Russian Federation (AIC RF). The subject of the research is the competitiveness of export-oriented companies in the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the study is due to the growth of exports of agricultural products, which is gradually becoming one of the most important sources of foreign exchange earnings in the country. The aim of the paper is to form a rating model for Russian companies focused on the export of agricultural products, on the basis of which to propose the most effective measures to support agricultural enterprises. The authors apply the following methods: systematization and classification of information, statistical, coefficient, and regression analysis. Such tools as linear regression models, logistic regression (logit, probit), ordered probit model are considered The authors use the Ginny coefficient (area under the curve Roc) for binomial models and an adjusted R2 for thelinear model as a quality criterion for the model. As a result, the study identified the key internal and external factors affecting the competitiveness of agricultural exporting companies. Internal factors include stocks, net assets, short-term borrowings, equity capital, fixed assets turnover, long-term liabilities, accounts payable. Among the external factors for both ordinal and binomial models, the most significant were the increase in imports, the logarithm of GDP, and the logarithm of GDP per capita. A model of rating assessment of companies has been developed. Proposals are formulated for using the developed system as a simulation model when making decisions on the development and support of food exports in Russia. The authors propose a combined mechanism for supporting enterprises, depending on the rating determined by the model. It is concluded that the implementation of this approach will significantly increase the level of economic efficiency of budget support funds aimed at stimulating exports. The prospect for further research on this topic is to study the influence of qualitative factors that were not included in the model: the drought index, sanctions, and other macroeconomic events and parameters.

Keywords

• export
• agro-industrial complex
• internal factors
• subsidy mechanism
• linear, binomial, and ordinal models