Global Per Capita CO₂ Emission Trends

Abstract

In recent years, carbon emissions have become a hot spot issue, and countries have made efforts to control the increasing rate of CO2 concentration. Prior studies have mainly focused on the national total carbon emissions, but per capita carbon emissions are still poorly known. Here, we used multiple economic development indices to investigate the dynamics of per capita carbon emissions. Additionally, we used the Mann–Kendall test to assess the directions and magnitudes of trends and to investigate abrupt changes in per capita carbon emissions. Our results showed the highest positive growth rate of 0.439 mts/yr in Oman, and the highest negative growth rate of −0.462 mts/yr in the United Arab Emirates. Hurst Index analysis showed that about 86% of countries will keep the current trends of carbon emissions if current mitigation measures remain unchanged. Furthermore, we analyzed the shift in the center of gravity for per capita carbon emissions and used the contribution decomposition method to identify the drivers for the shift, which changed direction in 2004. The main driver behind the westward shift in the gravity center before 2004 was the fact that carbon emissions grew more strongly in the west than in the east before 2004, while the driver for behind the eastward shift in the gravity center after 2004 was a combination of emission reductions in the west and emission increases in the east. Our results highlighted the importance of understanding that the per capita CO2 emissions are clearly defined within the context of global carbon neutrality, which can help policymakers set more reasonable targets with which to better achieve carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords

• per capita CO₂ emissions
• spatiotemporal trend
• gravity center
• contribution decomposition method