Spatio-Functional Nadaraya–Watson Estimator of the Expectile Shortfall Regression

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to consider a new risk metric that permits taking into account the spatial interactions of data. The considered risk metric explores the spatial tail-expectation of the data. Indeed, it is obtained by combining the ideas of expected shortfall regression with an expectile risk model. A spatio-functional Nadaraya–Watson estimator of the studied metric risk is constructed. The main asymptotic results of this work are the establishment of almost complete convergence under a mixed spatial structure. The claimed asymptotic result is obtained under standard assumptions covering the double functionality of the model as well as the data. The impact of the spatial interaction of the data in the proposed risk metric is evaluated using simulated data. A real experiment was conducted to measure the feasibility of the Spatio-Functional Expectile Shortfall Regression (SFESR) in practice.

Keywords

• financial risk
• complete consistency
• expected shortfall
• functional data
• kernel method
• expectile regression