Forecasting the real average retirement benefit in the United States using OWA operators

Abstract

The issue of pensions has become increasingly topical. This paper presents the ordered weighted averaging real average pension (OWARAP) operator. The OWARAP operator is based on the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator and calculates the future average retirement benefit taking into account price changes. Moreover, this work extends the OWARAP operator by using order-inducing variables, generalized means, and probabilities. This paper ends by analyzing the applicability of the OWARAP operator and its extensions in forecasting the real average Social Security benefits for retired workers in each state of the United States (U.S.). The results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach in retirement decision making. First published online 30 April 2024

Keywords

• aggregation operator
• forecasting
• inflation
• OWA operator
• retirement benefit
• Social Security