Development of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Being Lost to Follow-up After Hip Arthroscopy for Femoroacetabular Impingement Syndrome

Abstract

Purpose: To determine factors predictive of patients who are at risk for being lost to follow-up after hip arthroscopy for femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (FAIS). Methods: A prospective clinical repository was queried between January 2012 and October 2017 and all patients who underwent hip arthroscopy for primary or revision FAIS with minimum 2-year follow-up were included. A total of 27 potential risk factors for loss to follow-up were available and tested for predictive value. An 80:20 random sample split of all patients was performed to create training and testing sets. Cross-validation, minimum Bayes information criteria, and adaptive machine-learning algorithms were used to develop the predictive model. The model with the best predictive performance was selected based off of the lowest postestimation deviance between the training and testing samples. The c-statistic is a measure of discrimination. It ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 1.0 being perfect discrimination and 0.5 indicating the model is no better than chance. A log-likelihood χ2 test was used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the logistic regression model. Results: A total of 2113 patients were included. Inference of minimum Bayes information criteria model indicated that male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.82, P = .028), non-white race (African American OR 2.41, P = .013; other non-white OR 1.42, P = .042), smoking (OR 1.07, P = .021), and failure to provide a phone number (OR 1.78, P = .032) increased the risk for being lost to follow-up. Furthermore, greater preoperative International Hip Outcome Tool 12-item component questionnaire (OR 1.03, P = .004), and modified Harris Hip Score (OR 1.05, P = .014) scores increased the risk of being lost to follow-up. The c-statistic was 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.701-0.848). The log-likelihood indicated that the regression model as a whole was statistically significant (P = .002). Conclusions: Patients who are male, non-white, smokers, fail to provide a telephone number, and have greater preoperative modified Harris Hip Score and International Hip Outcome Tool 12-item component questionnaire scores are at an increased risk for being lost to follow-up 2 years after hip arthroscopy for FAIS. Level of Evidence: Level III, case control study