Prediction of Raw-Wood Consumption Based on Potential Wood Usage in Public Buildings: A Quantitative Approach Using Building Construction Statistics

Abstract

The use of wood in the construction sector to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is garnering global interest. In South Korea, the wood usage in public buildings is limited, being influenced by factors such as the high price of wood products and their limited use in large structures. In this work the future wood consumption in South Korea is predicted based on its potential use in current public buildings. The structural wood products required for the buildings were quantified based on the available statistical data. Items investigated were the (1) number of buildings started, (2) ratio of public buildings, (3) ratio of wooden structures, (4) average floor area of wooden buildings, (5) material cost per floor, and (6) wood prices. Assuming that the buildings contain reinforced-concrete and wooden structures, the wood consumption was estimated based on the replacement ratio. The results indicated that the prices of wood products were relatively higher than those of raw timber. The number of buildings is expected to decrease in line with the expected population decline, resulting in the decrease of wood amount required for public buildings. To achieve long-term GHG-reduction goals, it is important to replace the existing public buildings in Korea with wooden structures.

Keywords

• wood consumption
• construction sector
• statistical data
• greenhouse-gas emissions reduction
• predictive approach
• public buildings
• south korea