Winds of Change: How Up-To-Date Forecasting Methods Could Help Change Brazilian Wind Energy Policy and Save Billions of US$

Abstract

This paper proposes a revaluation of the Brazilian wind energy policy framework and the energy auction requirements. The proposed model deals with the four major issues associated with the wind policy framework that are: long-term wind speed sampling, wind speed forecasting reliability, energy commercialization, and the wind farm profitability. Brazilian wind policy, cross-checked against other countries policies, showed to be too restrictive and outdated. This paper proposes its renewal, through the adoption of international standards by Brazilian policy-makers, reducing the wind time sampling necessary to implement wind farms. To support such a policy change, a new wind forecasting method is designed. The method is based on fuzzy time series shaped with a statistical significance approach. It can be used to forecast wind behavior, by drawing the most-likely wind energy generation intervals given a confidence degree. The proposed method is useful to evaluate a wind farm profitability and design the biding strategy in auctions.

Keywords

• energy policy-framework
• wind energy
• renewable energy
• energy auctions
• forecasting
• electricity market
• fuzzy time series