Seasonally-reversed trends in the subtropical Northwestern Pacific linked to asymmetric AMO influences

Abstract

Abstract This study identifies seasonally-reversed trends in Kuroshio strength and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) within the western North Pacific (WNP) since the 1990s, specifically in the 22° N–28° N region. These trends are characterized by increases during summer and decreases during winter. The seasonally-reversed trends are a result of the asymmetric responses of the WNP to a shift towards the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) around the same period. The positive AMO induces an anomalous descent over the North Pacific during summer, leading to the direct strengthening of the gyre. However, during winter, it triggers an anomalous descent over the tropical Pacific, which excites a poleward wavetrain impacting the WNP and causing gyre weakening. The associated responses of the East Asian monsoon and China Coastal Current contribute to the observed seasonally-reversed SST trends. It is noteworthy that the seasonally-reversed trends in gyre strength and SSTs are predominantly observed north of 20° N in the WNP. This limitation arises because the anomalous cyclone within the winter poleward wavetrain is located north of this latitude boundary. Specifically, the clearest trends in gyre strength are observed in the northern segment of the Kuroshio, while the manifestation of SST trends in the Taiwan Strait could potentially be attributed to the influence and enhancement of the East Asian monsoon and the China Coastal Current. Due to the limited length of observational data, statistical significance of some of the signals discussed is rather limited. A CESM1 pacemaker experiments is further conducted to confirm the asymmetric responses of the North Pacific to the AMO between the summer and winter seasons.