Analysis of Covid 19 disease with SIR model and Taylor matrix method

Abstract

Covid 19 emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 has continued to spread by affecting the whole world. The pandemic has affected over 328 million people with more than 5 million deaths in over 200 countries which has severely disrupted the healthcare system and halted economies of the countries. The aim of this study is to discuss the numerical solution of the SIR model on the spread of Covid 19 by the Taylor matrix and collocation method for Turkey. Predicting COVID-19 through appropriate models can help us to understand the potential spread in the population so that appropriate action can be taken to prevent further transmission and prepare health systems for medical management of the disease. We deal with Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model. One of the proposed model's improvements is to reflect the societal feedback on the disease and confinement features. We obtain the time dependent rate of transmission of the disease from susceptible β(t) and the rate of recovery from infectious to recovered γ using Turkey epidemic data. We apply the Taylor matrix and collocation method to the SIR model with γ, β(t) and Covid 19 data of Turkey from the date of the first case March 11, 2020 through July 3, 2021. Using this method, we focus on the evolution of the Covid 19 in Turkey. We also show the estimates with the help of graphics and Maple.

Keywords

• sir model
• nonlinear differential equation systems
• taylor polynomials and series
• covid 19
• collocation points