MATHEMATICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR BIODIESEL PRODUCTION PROJECTS IN UKRAINE AGRICULTURE

Abstract

Abstract. One of the trends in the development of the market of alternative motor fuels is the production and use of biofuels, biodiesel in particular. Biodiesel which is used by domestic farmers is mainly self-produced. The current situation is related, first of all, to the lack of a single standard (regulation) for biodiesel production technology and is not enshrined in any legal act in Ukraine. In the conditions of the market functioning, agricultural producers face various risk factors, in particular, instability of prices for fuels and lubricants, monopolization of certain regions or market segments by traders, low quality of fuel, etc. Conditions of biodiesel production, as well as other economic activities, usually require the creation or involvement of labor, financial and material resources, which also affects the change in the level of risk. These problems can be solved by adapting and improving the existing mathematical apparatus to risk assessment for biodiesel production projects by agricultural enterprises. The main legal act that allows to determine and assess the level of risk is the state standard of Ukraine «Risk Management. Methods of general risk assessment», which served as the methodological foundation of the study. We propose to use three main technological schemes of biodiesel production, namely: cyclic scheme of production with the use of catalysts; non-catalytic cyclic circuit and multi-reactor continuous circuit scheme. In order to analyze each of these schemes, it is proposed to analyze the feasibility of investment in terms of their effectiveness and tie-in to the risks of introducing innovative technologies. The developed methodology provides a substantiation for the choice of technological option for biodiesel production. An algorithm for calculating risks has been proposed for the introduction of biodiesel production, the preparation of business plans and the assessment of criticality of possible losses for the production. The use of methods of vector algebra and fuzzy logic in the formation of the mathematical model makes it possible to estimate the probability indicators of each risk. Keywords: biodiesel, risks, mathematical model, agriculture, risk assessment, risk assessment methods. JEL Classification C60, Q42 Formulas: 8; fig.: 0; tabl.: 0; bibl.: 18.

Keywords

• biodiesel
• risks
• mathematical model
• agriculture
• risk assessment
• risk assessment methods