Prediction of distribution patterns and dominant climatic factors of Cymbidium in China using MaxEnt model

Abstract

Except for Cymbidium lancifolium, all the other species of Cymbidium have been listed as the national key protected wild plants. In order to explore its future distribution patterns under the future climatic, we gathered the distribution information of Cymbidium and 19 climatic factors, and used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Model and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) to predict the future distribution patterns of Cymbidium in China. The future potential distribution patterns of 20 Cymbidium species were predicted under nine different climatic scenarios, including the current climatic and eight future climatic scenarios (two kinds of greenhouse gas emissions for 2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). The results were as follows: (1) The precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), annual precipitation (Bio12) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) were the dominant climatic factors affecting the future distribution of Cymbidium. (2) The suitable areas of different Cymbidium species had different change trends in the future scenarios, and the dominant climatic factors affecting them were also different. The suitable habitat area of eight Cymbidium species such as C. dayanum gradually increased, while the suitable habitat area of 12 Cymbidium species such as C. tracyanum decreased as a whole. In conclusion, the results provide an important reference for in-situ and ex-situ conservations of Cymbidium, and have positive significance to the conservation of Cymbidium and other endangered wild plants.

Keywords

• maxent model
• species distribution models
• dominant climatic factor
• conservation strategy
• climatic change