Spatiotemporal variations of global land surface wind speed and wind power energy density from 1950 to 2021

Abstract

[Objective] Climate change directly affects global wind speed changes and the efficiency of wind energy resource utilization. Analyzing wind speed historical changes is one of the important topics for climate change response, efficient resource utilization, ecological security management, and sustainable social development. [Methods] Using the ERA5-Land grid reanalysis wind speed dataset at the 0.1° resolution from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and methods such as least squares, Theil-Sen slope estimation, and MK trend test to study the annual, seasonal, and monthly average wind speed trends and the evolution of suitable wind power areas over the past 72 years from 1950 to 2021 worldwide. [Results] (1) The global mean land surface wind speed increases slightly at an overall rate of 0.020 m/(s·10a) from 1950 to 2021. (2) The surface wind speed changes on a global scale exhibit significant spatial differences, especially remarkable in Africa and Antarctica in comparison with other continents. (3) As the seasonal changes, the land surface wind speed in winter season shows the significant changes, with a changing rate of 0.033 m/(s·10a). As the months changes, December, January and June exhibit particularly noticeable variations of surface wind speed. The global mean land surface wind speed has a mean rate of change of 0.073 m/(s·10a) and -0.066 m/(s·10a) for significant increases and decreases, respectively, in the regions passing the 95% significance test; and it has the mean rate of change of 0.080 m/(s·10a) and -0.071 m/(s·10a) for extremely significant increases and decreases, respectively, for the region passing the 99% highly significant test. The monthly average wind speed change rate and range in Antarctica are relatively large, affecting significantly the global average wind speed change rate and area assessment. (4) The global wind power energy density has slightly increased, with an average growth rate of 3.017 W/(m2·10a). The increase was most significant in January and December of the year, reaching 7.086 W/(m2·10a) and 6.660 W/(m2·10a), respectively. Antarctica and Africa lead in increasing wind power density for electricity generation, at 14.107 W/(m2·10a) and 4.652 W/(m2·10a) respectively. Asia stands out as the only continent with an overall decrease, while the remaining four continents show minor changes. [Conclusion] There were significant regional, seasonal, and monthly differences in global land surface wind speed changes. In order to accurately support climate change response, resources and ecological protection, and efficient development, dynamic monitoring and detailed analysis of changes in land surface wind speed and wind energy density in each region is still needed.

Keywords

• |wind speed|wind power energy density|slope of change|mann-kendall test|multiple spatiotemporal scales