A multivariate natural gas load forecasting method based on residual recurrent neural network

Abstract

Abstract Current natural gas load forecasting encounters with the conundrum of unsatisfying accuracy and interpretability. To address the challenge, a multi‐variate forecasting method is proposed, which contains three phases: First, an integrate history‐climate‐holiday factor set is established to provide multi‐perspective for a more explainable forecast; Second, factor fusion interaction between features and instances is carried out based on hierarchical contrastive learning, which contributes to inter‐intra factors potential relationships exploration. Third, a multivariate forecasting model named ResRNN is trained using fused target dataset. Due to its innovation in structure and loss, forecasting accuracy is further improved. Finally, the authors’ method's superiority is confirmed by several groups of comparative experiments and results demonstrate that it outperforms mainstream methods.

Keywords

• load forecasting
• network analysis
• recurrent neural nets