Diseases (Jun 2024)

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Chikungunya Incidence in Brazil and the Impact of Social Vulnerability: A Population-Based and Ecological Study

  • Thiago de Jesus Santos,
  • Karina Conceição Gomes Machado de Araújo,
  • Marco Aurélio de Oliveira Góes,
  • Marcio Bezerra-Santos,
  • Caíque Jordan Nunes Ribeiro,
  • Allan Dantas dos Santos,
  • Emerson Lucas Silva Camargo,
  • Regina Claudia Silva Souza,
  • Isabel Amélia Costa Mendes,
  • Alvaro Francisco Lopes de Sousa,
  • Damião da Conceição Araújo

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/diseases12070135
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 7
p. 135

Abstract

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To assess the temporal and spatial dynamics of chikungunya incidence and its association with social vulnerability indicators in Brazil, an ecological and population-based study was conducted herein, with confirmed cases of chikungunya and based on clinical and clinical–epidemiological criteria from 2017 to 2023. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and social vulnerability indicators were extracted from the official platform of the United Nations Development Program and the Social Vulnerability Atlas. Temporal, spatial, and global spatial regression models were employed. The temporal trend showed that in 2017, the incidence increased by 1.9%, and this trend decreased from 2020 to 2021 (−0.93%). The spatial distribution showed heterogeneity and positive spatial autocorrelation (I: 0.71; p < 0.001) in chikungunya cases in Brazil. Also, the high-risk areas for the disease were concentrated in the northeast and north regions. The social vulnerability indicators associated with the outcome were those related to income, education, and housing conditions. Our analyses demonstrate that chikungunya continues to be a serious health concern in Brazil, but specially in the northeast and north regions. Lastly, mapping risk areas can provide evidence for the development of public health strategies and disease control in endemic regions.

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