Scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 analyzed by the TVBG-SEIR spline model

Abstract

We develop a novel TVBG-SEIR spline model for analysis of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19). It aims to analyze the long-term global evolution of the epidemics "controlled" by the introduction of lockdown/open up measures by the authorities. The incorporation of different "lockdown scenarios" varying in time permits to analyze not only the primary epidemic wave but also the arising secondary wave and any further waves. The model is supplied by a web-based Scenario Building Tool for COVID-19 (called shortly SBT-COVID19) which may be used as a decision support software by (health) policy makers to explore various scenarios. This can be achieved by controlling/changing the scale of the containment measures (home and social isolation/quarantine, travel restrictions and other) and to assess their effectiveness. In particular, the SBT-COVID19 Tool permits to assess how long the lockdown measures should be maintained.