Development and validation of a nomogram for premature coronary artery disease patients in Guangzhou

Abstract

Background: Data regarding risk factors for premature coronary artery disease (PCAD) is scarce given that few research focus on it. This study aimed to develop and validate a clinical nomogram for PCAD patients in Guangzhou. Methods: We recruited 108 PCAD patients (female ≤65 years old and male ≤55 years old) and 96 healthy controls from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between 01/01/2021 and 31/12/2022. Twenty potentially relevant indicators of PCAD were extracted. Next, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. The nomogram was developed based on the selected variables visually. Results: Independent risk factors, including body mass index (BMI), history of PCAD, glucose, Apolipoprotein A1(ApoA1), high density lipoprotein 2-cholesterol (HDL2-C), total cholesterol and triglyceride, were identified by LASSO and logistic regression analysis. The nomogram showed accurate discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, ROC, 87.45 %, 95 % CI: 82.58 %-92.32 %). Decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram was clinical beneficial. HDL2, one risk factor, was isolated by a two-step discontinuous density-gradient ultracentrifugation method. And HDL2 from PCAD patients exhibited less 3H-cholesterol efflux (22.17 % vs 26.64 %, P < 0.05) and less delivery of NBD-cholesterol detecting by confocal microscope compared with healthy controls. Conclusions: In conclusion, the seven-factor nomogram can achieve a reasonable relationship with PCAD, and a large cohort were needed to enhance the credibility and effectiveness of our model in future.

Keywords

• Premature coronary artery disease
• Nomogram
• Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator
• Decision curve analysis
• High density lipoprotein 2