Forecasting macro-energy demand accounting for time-use and telework

Abstract

Behavioral changes due to digitalization, such as telework, shifted energy demand, especially during COVID-19. Behavioral changes are often overlooked in macro-demand forecasts. This study forecasts macro-energy use to 2030 using American Time Use Survey and national energy data from 2003-2019. It examines and explains residential, non-residential, and transportation sectors through efficiency, technology characteristics (e.g., home floor area), and usage (time-use). Results showed that improved efficiency had the largest effect on energy demand per capita in all sectors from 2003-2019. The time-use (behavior) effect was strongest in non-residential buildings, resulting in a net energy reduction of -9%, decomposed into increased in floor area (+24%), improved efficiency (-26%), and reduced time-use (-7%). In forecasting, two potential effects of telework on energy use in 2030 were explored: (1) temporary shift in telework due to COVID-19 (14% teleworking in 2030) and (2) permanent shift in telework that increases with historical trends (34%). The permanent shift resulted in 3.6% less energy demand per capita in 2030. Reduced time-use of non-residential buildings had the largest effect on decreasing energy demand, -29%, with +8.5% from residential energy use, -7.5% from transportation, yielding a net -28% energy use per teleworker. Alternate perspectives are needed to corroborate results.

Keywords

• Time-use
• IPAT model
• Decomposition analysis
• Energy demand forecast
• Telework
• Behavioral changes