Distributed Regional Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Stack Integration Algorithm

Abstract

With the continuous increase in the proportion of distributed photovoltaic power stations, the demand for photovoltaic power grid connection is becoming more and more urgent, and the requirements for the accuracy of regional distributed photovoltaic power forecasting are also increasing. A distributed regional photovoltaic power prediction model based on a stacked ensemble algorithm is proposed here. This model first uses a graph attention network (GAT) to learn the structural features and relationships between sub-area photovoltaic power stations, dynamically calculating the attention weights of the photovoltaic power stations to capture the global relationships and importance between stations, and selects representative stations for each sub-area. Subsequently, the CNN-LSTM-multi-head attention parallel multi-channel (CNN-LSTM-MHA (PC)) model is used as the basic model to predict representative stations for sub-areas by integrating the advantages of both the CNN and LSTM models. The predicted results are then used as new features for the input data of the meta-model, which finally predicts the photovoltaic power of the large area. Through comparative experiments at different seasons and time scales, this distributed regional approach reduced the MAE metric by a total of 22.85 kW in spring, 17 kW in summer, 30.26 kW in autumn, and 50.62 kW in winter compared with other models.

Keywords

• GAT
• CNN-LSTM-MHA (PC)
• power
• basic model
• meta-model