A Bivariate Nonstationary Extreme Values Analysis of Skew Surge and Significant Wave Height in the English Channel

Abstract

Coastal flooding compound events can be caused by climate-driven extremes of storm surges and waves. To assess the risk associated with these events in the context of climate variability, the bivariate extremes of skew surge (S) and significant wave height (HS) are modeled in a nonstationary framework using physical atmospheric/oceanic parameters as covariates (atmospheric pressure, wind speed and sea surface temperature). This bivariate nonstationary distribution is modeled using a threshold-based approach for the margins of S and HS and a dynamic copula for their dependence structure. Among the covariates considered, atmospheric pressure and related wind speed are primary forcings for the margins of S and HS, but temperature is the main positive forcing of their dependence. This latter relation implies an increasing risk of compound events of S and HS for the studied site in the context of increasing global temperature.

Keywords

• skew surge
• wave height
• nonstationary
• physical covariates
• compound extremes