Projections of climate change impacts on ecosystem services and the role of land use adaptation in France

Abstract

This study examines the complex relationship between climate change and ecosystem services (ESs) in France. We explore both the direct effects of climate change and the indirect effects of land-use change on six regulating ESs (e.g., habitat quality, water retention) and two provisioning ESs (e.g., crop production, livestock production). Results indicate that while climate change may initially have positive impacts on ESs, the induced negative impacts of land-use adaptation often overshadow these benefits. We show the effectiveness of a greenhouse gas (GHG) tax of 200€/tCO2 eq on agriculture in offsetting the negative effects of land-use adaptation to climate change on ESs. This highlights the importance of integrating economic instruments, such as carbon pricing mechanisms, to promote the sustainable management of ESs in the context of climate change.

Keywords

• Ecosystem services
• Climate change
• Climate change adaptation and mitigation
• Spatial autocorrelation
• Land use