Do Livestock Supports Increase Livestock Production? Province Based Panel ARDL Analysis for Turkey Example

Abstract

In recent years, there has been a significant change in Turkey's agricultural support policies, especially on livestock supports. The livestock support, with a share less than 5% in total has in early 2000s has reached up to 35% at the end of 2020. In order to understand the impact of increase in livestock supports, 11 years of livestock support and livestock presence in 81 provinces in Turkey were analyzed via Panel ARDL method. The results of the analysis revealed that support to livestock does not affect the number of livestock in the short term, but has a positive effect in the long run. Furthermore, both in the short and long term, the increase in prices in the livestock sector increases the livestock fund. Eventhough increases in feed prices harm livestock presence in short run as expected, this negative effect disappears in the long run. The production effect of minimum wage variable is added to the model considering the unique situation of Turkey, which effects the production negative in the short run, but positive in the long run.