CLIMATE CHANGE IN NORTHERN AFRICA: TOWARDS A RETURN OF RAINFALL ON THE SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN

Abstract

To determine to what extent climate change affects the rainfall recorded on the southern Mediterranean basin, a trend analysis is proposed. This study is based on the chronological graphic method of processing information (MGCTI) of type "Matrice Bertin". Results show an extreme variability of the precipitations and a severe drought, especially for Morocco, observed since 1970s. Finally, a gradual return to humid conditions is observed from the beginning of the 2000s in Algeria and Tunisia and since 2008 in Morocco. This new trend is also confirmed by recent results provided by agricultural data of 2011/2012 and 2012/2013.

Keywords

• climate change
• trend of precipitation
• drought
• rain return
• Maghreb