The risk assessment in the state aviation safety performance system

Abstract

The commander of the aviation unit makes a decision to conduct flights in conditions of uncertainty. Lack of full input information makes him rely on his own experience and intuition. In this case, the existing regulatory framework does not require the decision maker to carry out risk assessment in relation to the implementation of the decision on the safety of flights. And as a result, quality of decision fully depends on a competence and experience of decision maker. The article considers the possibility of implementation of the theory of risks approaches in the system of ensuring safety of flights of state aviation. A decision-making algorithm based on risk assessment is proposed. The analysis of methods used in civil aviation for risk assessment is carried out. The expediency of their application for conditions of state aviation activity is considered. In order to solve the tasks of assessing the safety risks of state aviation of Ukraine it is proposed to use a combination of Bayesian analysis method, the method of Risk Indicators and the 5x5 hazard/frequency matrix method.

Keywords

• safety performance
• theory of risks
• state aviation