Data-driven blood glucose level prediction in type 1 diabetes: a comprehensive comparative analysis

Abstract

Abstract Accurate prediction of blood glucose level (BGL) has proven to be an effective way to help in type 1 diabetes management. The choice of input, along with the fundamental choice of model structure, is an existing challenge in BGL prediction. Investigating the performance of different data-driven time series forecasting approaches with different inputs for BGL prediction is beneficial in advancing BGL prediction performance. Limited work has been made in this regard, which has resulted in different conclusions. This paper performs a comprehensive investigation of different data-driven time series forecasting approaches using different inputs. To do so, BGL prediction is comparatively investigated from two perspectives; the model’s approach and the model’s input. First, we compare the performance of BGL prediction using different data-driven time series forecasting approaches, including classical time series forecasting, traditional machine learning, and deep neural networks. Secondly, for each prediction approach, univariate input, using BGL data only, is compared to a multivariate input, using data on carbohydrate intake, injected bolus insulin, and physical activity in addition to BGL data. The investigation is performed on two publicly available Ohio datasets. Regression-based and clinical-based metrics along with statistical analyses are performed for evaluation and comparison purposes. The outcomes show that the traditional machine learning model is the fastest model to train and has the best BGL prediction performance especially when using multivariate input. Also, results show that simply adding extra variables does not necessarily improve BGL prediction performance significantly, and data fusion approaches may be required to effectively leverage other variables’ information.