Seasonal Prediction of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Concentration from a Partial Least Squares Regression Model

Abstract

The past decade has witnessed a rapid decline in the Arctic sea ice and therefore has raised a rising demand for sea ice forecasts. In this study, based on an analysis of long-term Arctic summer sea ice concentration (SIC) and global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, a physical–empirical (PE) partial least squares regression (PLSR) model is presented in order to predict the summer SIC variability around the key areas of the Arctic shipping route. First, the main SST modes closely associated with sea ice anomalies are found by the PLSR method. Then, a prediction model is reasonably established on the basis of these PLSR modes. We investigate the performance of the PE PLSR model by examining its reproducibility of the seasonal SIC variability. Results show that the proposed model turns out promising prediction reliability and accuracy for Arctic summer SIC change, thus providing a reference for the further study of Arctic SIC variability and global climate change.

Keywords

• Arctic summer sea ice variability
• seasonal prediction
• partial least squares regression (PLSR) model