Assessment of the Prospects for Bankruptcy of Industrial Sectors of the Sverdlovsk Region

Abstract

The subject of the study is the assessment of the financial viability of industrial enterprises. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the prospects for bankruptcy of enterprises in various industries interritorial systems and testing it on the example of an industrially developed region. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in the conditions of significant sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, narrowing of the markets of sale of produced products and disturbance of logistics chains, restrictions on the import of high-tech equipment, Russian enterprises face problems of shortage of operating funds, non-liquidity of assets, high levels of debt. The significant deterioration in the financial situation of enterprises, that is currently observed, creates the prospects for bankruptcy of entire industries, which creates threats to the socio-economic development of territorial systems. The novelty of the study is the author’s methodological approach to assessing the prospects for bankruptcy of industrial sectors, based on the use of multidimensional discriminant analysis of the financial viability of not individual enterprises, but of industrial sectors as a whole to determine sectoral priorities for state support for their development. General scientific and empirical methods, multivariate discriminant analysis were used. During testing of the developed methodological approach using the example of the Sverdlovsk region, the following results were obtained: currently, the risks of bankruptcy of enterprises in the entire industrial complex of the Sverdlovsk region are significantly increasing; The Altman curve has approached a critical threshold value, indicating a high level of probability of enterprise bankruptcy. It was concluded that in the Sverdlovsk region, enterprises in the food production, electrical equipment, chemical production and mineral mining industries are in the most critical condition. Increased risks of loss of financial viability are observed in the industries of metallurgical production, production of finished metal products, as well as other non-metallic mineral products, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, which dominate the industry structure of the region. These industries require government support in the implementation of industrial policy at the federal and regional levels.

Keywords

• probability of bankruptcy
• industries
• region
• multivariate discriminant analysis
• financial solvency
• threshold levels