Analysis on financing structure and default probability of listed companies

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the financing structure and the probability of default of A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2020. The purpose is to prevent the occurrence of default and ensure the healthy development of various industries. It is found that the higher the proportion of external financing is, the higher the probability of default is. The impact of debt financing on default risk is higher than equity financing. In addition, this paper tests the mediating effect of cash flow risk, and the effect of financing structure on debt default probability is heterogeneous among regions and enterprises. These findings show that enterprises must control their financing structure, optimize the allocation of resources, prevent cash flow risk, reduce the probability of debt default, so as to make various industries flourish and optimize the industrial structure.